Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday—just one, to be precise. In the U.S., the weekly Unemployment Claims Report will be published. These reports rarely show significant deviations from forecasted values and usually have a low impact on market sentiment. Therefore, we do not expect strong market movements today. However, volatility could arise if Donald Trump continues to issue threats and impose conditions on the rest of the world.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is nothing particularly noteworthy in terms of fundamental events on Thursday. While yesterday featured a speech from Christine Lagarde, today the event calendar is empty. Nevertheless, this calm is temporary. Starting next week, central bank meetings will take place, and it may be extremely challenging for both the euro and the pound to maintain the gains they have achieved in recent weeks. It's worth noting that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are highly likely, at 90%, to cut key interest rates, while the Federal Reserve is also unlikely to do so.

General Conclusions:

On this penultimate trading day of the week, market movements are expected to be calmer. Both currency pairs are currently undergoing corrections, although these corrections are not very strong. As a result, we do not rule out potential declines in both pairs today, as the upward movements earlier this week were neither justified nor logical. However, we anticipate these corrections in both currency pairs may continue over the next few weeks.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.