Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen

A test of the 158.29 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. This resulted in the pair falling by more than 40 points.

The pair remains within a sideways channel despite the morning's dollar profit-taking ahead of significant data releases. Evidently, not all traders believe in strong data and prefer to close positions rather than take additional risks. The numbers on nonfarm payrolls and unemployment for December 2024 will be pivotal for determining the dollar's direction, along with data on changes in average hourly earnings. Positive reports will lead to dollar purchases and yen sales. Attention should also be paid to the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. The Consumer Sentiment Index is a critical indicator of economic conditions, reflecting household confidence and expectations. Inflation expectations play a key role in shaping economic policy and consumer behavior. When consumers anticipate rising prices, they may adjust their spending and saving habits accordingly.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 158.15 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 158.66 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.66, I will exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction). The pair's growth can be expected as part of the ongoing uptrend.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.80 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 158.15 and 158.66 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout of the 157.80 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.36 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair today is likely only after weak U.S. labor market statistics.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.15 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 157.80 and 157.36 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders on the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of critical fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.