09.01.2025 12:23 PM
歐元兌日元 (EUR/JPY) 走勢持續面臨賣壓，在亞洲時段跌至約 162.60 的三天低點。
這一下跌主要是由於日本經濟數據的正面表現推動日元走強所致。基礎工資上漲了 2.7%，是自 1992 年以來的最高增長。通脹加速上升，從 2.6% 提升至 3.4%，增強了市場對日本央行加息的預期，進一步支持日元並對 EUR/JPY 構成壓力。此外，謹慎的市場情緒、地緣政治風險以及對貿易戰的擔憂也增強了日元作為避險貨幣的地位。
與此同時，歐元受到來自德國疲弱經濟數據的壓力。具體來說，德國的製造業訂單在十一月出乎意料地下降了 5.4%，零售銷售下降了 0.6%。這些數據加劇了對歐元區經濟不穩定的擔憂，也鞏固了歐洲央行的溫和立場。
從技術角度來看，近期未能突破 200 日簡單移動平均線 (SMA) 也顯示出市場的看跌情緒，暗示 EUR/JPY 的短期趨勢可能持續走低。然而，日線圖上的震盪指標仍處於正區域。雖然基礎面前景對歐元不利，但賣方應當謹慎，因為並非所有技術因素都與看跌的基礎面敘述一致。
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